Friday, 30 September 2016

Commodity Updates - Gold Price Higher, Silver For Losses

Gold Price Moves Higher, But Silver Headed  
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Rising for the second straight day, gold prices climbed Rs. 175 to Rs. 31,525 per 10 grams on Friday, lapping up positive global cues amid increased buying by jewellers in the domestic spot market. However, silver declined by Rs. 50 to Rs. 45,500 per kg on lack of buying support from industrial units and coin makers. Traders said sentiment turned positive after gold gained in global markets as rising investor concerns over Deutsche Bank's finances spurred a sell-off in equities, which helped underpin demand for safe haven of gold.  

Globally, gold rose 0.4 per cent to $1,325.45 an ounce in Singapore. 

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity surged Rs. 175 each to Rs. 31,525 and Rs. 31,375 per 10 grams, respectively. The precious metal had gained Rs. 50 yesterday. Sovereign, however, remained unchanged at Rs. 24,500 per piece of eight grams. On the other hand, silver ready fell by Rs. 50 to Rs. 45,500 per kg while weekly-based delivery lost Rs. 145 to Rs. 45,725 per kg. Silver coins remained flat at Rs. 77,000 for buying and Rs. 78,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Thursday, 29 September 2016

Market after Surgical Attack on Pak

Live: Sensex plunges 560 points after surgical strikes on militants in Pakistan  
Market after Surgical Attack on Pak
Market after Surgical Attack on Pak
India’s benchmark Sensex Index fell over 550 points after India’s director general of military operations Ranbir Singh said that it attacked terrorist camps in Pakistan. At 12.48pm, Sensex was trading at 27972.60, down 555 points or 1.96% while Nifty fell 1.94% or 170 points to 8575.25 points. Earlier in the day, Sensex Index gained as much as 0.68% or 182 points to 28475.57 while Nifty Index rose as much as 0.63% or 55 points to 8,800.65. Indian army conducted strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) against terrorist launch pads on Thursday, said director general of military operations Ranbir Singh.  
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All the sectoral indices were trading lower. BSE Realty Index was the top loser which fell 4.2% followed by BSE Power, Healthcare and Consumer Durables indices which fell 2.5%, 2.4% and 2% respectively. BSE Bankex and Auto indices fell 1.8% and 1% respectively.Today’s fall in Indian equities is an indication that geo-political risk is on a rise. FIIs are likely to sell from hereon. We see the Nifty at 8,400 level and Bank Nifty at 18,500 levels next week. It is now a sell on rally market.

Wednesday, 28 September 2016

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Drops

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Drops on Signs of Failed Accord 
Talking Points:  
  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Short bias remains as falling resistance favors move to $43/bbl  
  • Supply glut may get worse as IEA favors imbalance through late 2014  
  • US Dollar continues sideways, which takes out a component of downward price pressure  
The last week of Q3 has all focus on the OPEC and Russia meeting in Algiers. The Federal Reserve announcement did little for the US Dollar as many now see even the likelihood of one rate hike as a fading possibility. Now, Algiers may be a disappointment for Oil Bulls as the FOMC meeting on September 21 were to US Dollar Bulls as Iran has said they are not going to freeze output at the current level, and Saudi is not interested in freezing production alone.  
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While much focus is now on the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Algiers, and the following meeting in November where rumors will likely run rampant once again. However, on Tuesday, IEA came out with a warning that oversupply will exceed demand until late 2017. Traders will likely keep this warning in their back pocket and look for a possible failed-OPEC accord alongside DOE data on Wednesday to show a further build to increase further bearish bets on Oil.  
The chart above shows competing technical stories. As explained earlier, the fundamental pressure appears to be for a push lower. Only a reversal of main themes such as a weak US Dollar, Oversupply, OPEC failed accord, followed by a price breakout above $50/bbl should turn trader’s attention toward the bullish mindset of Q2. The competition comes in the form of a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern that would activate an upside bias on a daily close above $50/bbl. 

Tuesday, 27 September 2016

Crude Oil Futures Edge Lower on MCX

Crude oil futures edged lower on MCX as speculators exited positions in the energy commodity ahead of an informal meeting of top oil producers to discuss measures to stabilize oil prices including a possible production freeze, to help ease a global supply glut.  
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The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 3052.00, down by 1.01% or Rs 31.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3083.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 20935 lots. 

The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 3107.00, down by 0.92% or Rs 29.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3136.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 1745 lots on MCX.

Monday, 26 September 2016

Gold Slips on Firm Dollar

Gold slips on firm dollar; US presidential debate outcome await  
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Gold prices edged lower on Monday as the dollar firmed, though the market is focused on the outcome of the US presidential debate later on Monday that could see investors buying more of the metal as a hedge against financial uncertainty. Spot gold was down 0.3 per cent to $1,332.88 an ounce by 0324 GMT. US gold futures fell 0.3 per cent to $1,337.60 an ounce. The US presidential debate between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton will take place at 0100 GMT on Tuesday, with investors looking for indications of who could win the race to lead the world’s biggest economy. 

If Trump is perceived to have an improved probability of winning the Presidential race, that is likely to be supportive of the gold prices, so we could see (gold) prices rallying in the short term amidst higher volatility,” said NAB analyst Vyanne Lai. 

Generally Trump’s presidential candidacy is associated with more extreme policy measures and more volatility in the geopolitical landscapes.” The dollar was mostly flat at 100.94 yen after touching a low of 100.68 yen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was firm at 95.456. 

We expect gold to continue to hold its recent $1,330 - $1,340 range in the lead up to the presidential debate,” MKS PAMP Group trader Sam Laughlin said. Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren had said on Friday that he believed interest rates should be raised gradually now and warned that a fall in the unemployment rate below its sustainable level could derail economic recovery in the United States.

Friday, 23 September 2016

Commodity Analysis Report 23-Sep-2016

If you think you know where real US interest rates are heading, perhaps you should consider becoming a gold trader.  
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As this chart from a commodities analyst shows, where one goes, the other tends to follow. For clarity, real 10-year US note yields are the nominal rate less inflation, with the line inverted. 

Gold prices and US 10-year real yields have historically had a tight inverse relationship. We believe this relationship will continue to hold on the basis that lower yields should increase the appeal of non-US interest bearing assets like gold,” says Experts. 

Therefore a higher Fed Funds rate will, all else held equal, have a negative impact on gold prices.”  

Of course, as Experts suggests, there are other considerations, including inflation rates, levels of risk aversion and movements in the US dollar.

Thursday, 22 September 2016

Natural Gas Inventory Call

Crude oil, natural gas output drops in August 
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Domestic crude oil output fell 3.93 per cent in August 2016, while natural gas output dropped by 5.72 per  cent, according to data released by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Domestic crude oil production stood at 3.067 million tonnes in the month of August 2016 compared witho 3.193 million tonne in the same month last year. Natural gas production stood at 2.674 billion cubic meter ( 2.836 billion cubic metre). Further, refinery throughput during the month grew 3.46 per cent during the month to 20.290 mt against 19.611 mt in the same month last year.

Crude oil futures jump to Rs. 3,075 per barrel  
Crude oil rose 0.95 per cent to Rs. 3,075 per barrel at the futures market today as speculators widened their bets, taking positive cues from the Asian markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in October was trading higher by Rs. 29 or 0.95 per cent at Rs. 3,075 per barrel in a business turnover of 4,061 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in November gained Rs. 28 or 0.90 per cent to Rs. 3,129 per barrel in 98 lots.  

Analysts said speculative positions built up by traders after crude oil prices climbed in Asian markets today, building on the previous day’s gains following a bigger-than-forecast fall in US stockpiles, and a plunge in the dollar after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold, influenced crude futures here.  

The commodity had rallied on Wednesday after the US Department of Energy said inventories had tumbled by more than six million barrels last week, almost twice as much was expected, indicating a pick-up in demand in the world’s top economy.  

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude was up 45 cents at $45.79, while global benchmark Brent added 48 cents to $47.31 a barrel. Both contracts climbed more than two per cent Wednesday. The gains were given extra momentum by the a weaker dollar, which makes oil cheaper for people holding other currencies.

Wednesday, 21 September 2016

Commodity Updates 21-Sep-2016-क्रूड में रिकवरी, सोना 1318 डॉलर के पार

6 हफ्ते के निचले स्तर पर पहुंचने के बाद कल क्रूड में रिकवरी देखने को मिली है। नायमैक्स पर क्रूड का भाव 45 डॉलर और ब्रेंट पर 47 डॉलर के करीब पहुंच गया है। वहीं फेड के दरें ना बढ़ाने की उम्मीद से सोने में भी तेजी आई है। कॉमैक्स पर सोने का भाव 1318 डॉलर के पार है।
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रेलू बाजार में एमसीएक्स कच्चा तेल 2.2 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 3020 रुपये के ऊपर दिख रहा है। जबकि नैचुरल गैस 1.3 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 210 रुपये के करीब दिख रहा है। वहीं सोना 0.09 फीसदी की हल्की कमजोरी के साथ 30895 रुपये के आसपास कारोबार कर रहा है। जबकि चांदी 0.3 फीसदी की गिरावट के साथ 46000 रुपये के आसपास दिख रही है।
फिलहाल एमसीएक्स पर सोना 0.15 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 30950 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है। चांदी 0.1 फीसदी की मामूली बढ़त के साथ 46000 रुपये के आसपास नजर आ रही है। हालांकि कच्चा तेल 0.5 फीसदी से ज्यादा फिसलकर 2940 रुपये पर आ गया है। लेकिन नैचुरल गैस 1.75 फीसदी की मजबूती के साथ 198.9 रुपये पर पहुंच गया है।

Tuesday, 20 September 2016

Commodity Updates 20-Sep-2016

Gold Rebounds from 3-Month Lows to Finish Higher  

Gold futures prices on Monday finished higher, rebounding from the three-month lows they saw late last week, as the dollar backtracked in a nervous atmosphere ahead of two key central bank policy-setting sessions this week. December gold GCZ6, +0.09% gained $7.60, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,317.80 an ounce, after tapping highs above $1,321 earlier. The ICE U.S. dollar index DXY, +0.01% was down 0.3% as gold futures settled. 
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Gold posted a seventh drop in eight sessions to finish with a nearly 2% loss last week. The dollar had made sharp gains last week on upbeat economic data but on Monday, dollar-bulls tempered their hopes for an interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. That’s the final day of a two-day meeting for the U.S. central bank, which gathers on the same two days as its Japanese counterpart.  

The Fed and the Bank of Japan are generally eyeing divergent directions for their respective monetary policies. Any actions, or simply their commentary, this week could influence their respective country’s currencies as well as dollar-priced assets like precious metals, which tend to move in opposite direction to the dollar.

Monday, 19 September 2016

Crude Oil Future Weekly Outlook September 19 - 23, 2016

Oil futures fell sharply on Friday, with U.S. crude prices
Commodity Headline
touching a more than five-week low as signs of an ongoing recovery in U.S. drilling activity combined with increasing exports from OPEC added to concerns over a global supply glut. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in October sank to a daily low of $42.74 a barrel, a level not seen since August 11. It ended at $43.03 by close of trade, down 88 cents, or 2%, on the day.  

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Stock Market Premium Services
Market players continued to focus on U.S. drilling prospects, amid indications of a recent recovery in drilling activity. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 2 to 416, marking the 11th increase in 12 weeks. That came after government data published on Wednesday showed large weekly builds in U.S. petroleum products. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, distillate inventories including diesel, increased by 4.619 million barrels last week, much higher than expectations for a rise of 1.543 million barrels.  

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals. Market players will also continue to monitor developments before the informal meeting of major oil producing countries next week. 

Ahead of the coming week, We have compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.  

Tuesday, September 20
  • The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies. 
Wednesday, September 21
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil and gasoline stockpiles. 
Friday, September 23
  • Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

Friday, 16 September 2016

Natural Gas Regained After Stockpile Data

Government report shows natural-gas stockpiles grew by 62 billion cubic feet last week 
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Natural gas prices rose to a 2 1/2-month high Thursday, flipping up from losses after data showed a  below-average storage addition last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural-gas stockpiles grew by 62 billion cubic feet last week. While that is more than the 60 bcf expected by forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, it is lower than both last year’s addition and the five-year average addition for this week of the year.

That suggests smaller supply or greater demand compared with a year ago. While that might often be a secondary concern to how the weekly data compared with expectations, right now traders are eagerly looking for reasons to buy, said Teri Viswanath, managing director of natural gas at PIRA in New York. Many expect a drop in drilling work and growing demand for gas-fired power and heat to erase a long-standing glut in the market.  

Natural gas for October delivery settled up 3.8 cents, or 1.3%, at $2.927 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That is up from losses of more than 3 cents before the EIA report. It is the highest settlement since July 1 and the second-highest settlement of the year. Prices have approached $3/mmBtu four times this summer as historic summer heat has caused record demand for gas-fired power to run air conditioners.  

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana traded Thursday between $2.925/mmBtu and $2.98/mmBtu, compared with a range of $3.01-$3.07 on Wednesday. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded between $1.17/mmBtu and $1.245/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday’s range of $1.31-$1.38.

Thursday, 15 September 2016

Oil Futures End Near 2-Week Low

Oil futures end near 2-week low as traders focus on rising output  
Oil futures settled at a nearly two-week low on Wednesday, as traders looked past an unexpected decline in a weekly tally of crude stockpiles to focus on an increase in output. Futures tumbled a day earlier after a report from the International Energy Agency suggested that the global crude glut could last longer than expected.  
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October West Texas Intermediate crude CLV6, +0.28% fell by $1.32, or 2.9%, to settle at $43.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $44.44 before the supply data, shot up past $45 afterward, then retreated to the session low. November Brent crude LCOX6, +0.55% on London’s ICE Futures exchange lost $1.25, or 2.7%, to $45.85 a barrel after similar volatile moves. The settlements for both grades of crude were the lowest since Sept. 1, FactSet data show.  

The U.S. Energy Information Administration early Wednesday reported that domestic crude supplies fell by 600,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 9. But a 3.3 million-barrel climb was expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts and the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported an increase of 1.4 million barrels.  

The EIA had previously reported a whopping 14.5 million-barrel drop in supplies for the week ended Sept. 2, with analysts attributing the decline to storm-related disruptions to deliveries in the Gulf of Mexico. Traders were expecting supplies to rebound from that in the latest week.  

The market has not seen the “bounce back” in the supply data yet, said Tyler Richey, co-editor of The 7:00’s Report. Supply should build in the coming weeks as imports continue to rebound to pre-storm levels, he said. The report also showed that total domestic crude production rose by 35,000 barrels a day to 8.493 million barrels a day.

Wednesday, 14 September 2016

Precious Gold Up

PRECIOUS-Gold up, waiting for clues on timing of U.S. rate rise
  • Gold faces technical resistance around $1,330/oz 
  • Fed rate hike in Sept seen off the agenda 
  • Gold holdings in exchange traded funds fall 
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By Pratima Desai and Swati Verma LONDON, Sept 14 Gold prices rose on Wednesday and the dollar  slipped against a basket of currencies and as the market waited for clues to the timing of interest rate rises in the United States. Spot gold was trading up 0.4 percent at $1,323.81 an ounce at 0941 GMT. It touched $1,315.27 on Tuesday, the lowest in more than a week. U.S. gold futures were up 0.2 percent at $1,326.90 an ounce.

Expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates at next week's policy meeting have receded, putting pressure on the U.S. currency which when it falls makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. "The big picture is the Fed rate hike, which is going to be the biggest factor for gold, so in the short-term markets will be looking at U.S. data," said Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah. 

"It's all about the opportunity cost of holding gold. Higher interest rates make it more expensive to hold gold, which has zero yield." Markets are pricing in just a 15 percent chance that U.S. interest rates will be hiked this month, according to CME FedWatch. Many now expect a rise in December after the Presidential election. Goldman Sachs puts the chances of a rate hike in December at 40 percent.  

Investors also appear to have given up the idea of an imminent rise in U.S. rates as can be seen in holdings of gold in physically backed exchange-traded funds, which are down 1.7 percent at 56.27 million ounces since August 5. On the technical front, initial resistance comes in around $1,330, near the 21-day moving average. "Gold is approaching the important $1,300-$1,310 support zone, which has held incredibly well since the Brexit rally and will be a key focus for traders in the short term," said Alex Thorndike, senior precious metals dealer at MKS PAMP Group.  

Spot silver was up one percent at $19.04 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.9 percent at $1041.20. It fell more than 2 percent to touch an over 2-month low to $1,026.10 on Tuesday. Palladium rose one percent at $658 and compares with an 8-week low of $648.72 on Tuesday.

Tuesday, 13 September 2016

Gold Steady as Fed Lower Chances of Interest Rate Hike

Sept 13 Gold edged higher early on Tuesday after a top Federal Reserve official quelled expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike next week. 
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  • Traders trimmed their odds for a September rate hike to 15 percent from 24 percent on Friday, according to CME Group.   
  • The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of major rivals on Monday after Brainard's comments, while speculation of a less-accommodative Bank of Japan boosted the yen.  
  • Big Japanese manufacturers turned optimistic in the third quarter and companies revised up their capital expenditure plans in a sign the economy is gaining momentum.  
  • Barrick Gold Corp, the world's biggest gold producer, said on Monday it would partner with Cisco Systems to incorporate digital technology in all aspects of its mining business, aiming to improve productivity and reduce costs.  
  • Johannesburg-listed miner Gold Fields said on Monday that an employee at the South Deep mine in South Africa was killed in an accident on Saturday following a seismic event. 
  • Asian stocks rose early on Tuesday, boosted as Wall Street rallied overnight.  
  • Oil prices ended nearly 1 percent higher on Monday as a softer dollar and the stronger U.S. equity markets helped crude futures rebound from an early drop pressured by worries about increased drilling activity in the United States.

Monday, 12 September 2016

Gold Fell Slightly Early Monday

Sept 12 Gold fell slightly early Monday as hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials late last week raised bets on a rate hike as early as September.  
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  • Spot gold had slipped nearly 0.2 percent to $1,325.60 an ounce by 0120 GMT.  
  • U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3 percent to $1,329 an ounce.
  • The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.1 percent at 95.219.  
  • A spate of Fed speakers kept hopes alive for a September rate hike, despite some recently disappointing economic data including only a modest rise in U.S. nonfarm payrolls.  
  • After Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren spoke on Friday, odds on a rate hike in September rose to 30 percent probability from 24 percent before his comments.  
  • SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 1.12 percent to 939.94 tonnes on Friday. 

Asian shares slipped on Monday with investors rattled by rising bond yields and talk the Fed might be serious about lifting U.S. interest rates as early as next week.

Saturday, 10 September 2016

Live Gold Prices : Latest Price Of Gold Today 10-Sep-2016

Gold Prices Drop on Speculation Over Rate Increase   

Gold fell for the third day in a row Friday, under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected. Gold for December delivery settled down 0.5% at $1,334.50 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren spoke Friday in favor of raising rates, sparking speculation that an interest-rate increase could come as early as September.  
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Recent disappointing U.S. economic data, including nonfarm payrolls and ISM nonmanufacturing reports, buoyed gold prices and diminished expectations for a rate increase in September. However, the precious metal has also been susceptible to remarks from Fed officials, leading to sharp price swings in a thin market. “This week almost feels like it’s still August. There’s no participation in the market and all of a sudden, September might be on the table again, “ said Peter Hug, global trading director at Kitco Metals. “It’s just keeping the market on edge and that’s why were getting this choppiness.”  

The possibility of a rate increase in September has made investors nervous, prompting some to scale back long positions in gold, Mr. Hug said. Higher rates tend to hurt gold, which pays its holders no return and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Expectations for an imminent rise in interest rates have also lifted the dollar. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against 16 other currencies, was recently up 0.4% at 86.51. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated gold becomes more expensive to foreign buyers.